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木頭姐投資“大難臨頭”,科技股暴跌還不是最慘

木頭姐投資“大難臨頭”,科技股暴跌還不是最慘

Shawn Tully 2022-01-21
價值投資者不會認同伍德對價值的定義。

2021年12月中旬,凱茜·伍德旗下的旗艦基金ARK Innovation ETF的凈值暴跌,然而她越發篤定投資冒險且震撼全球的技術,堅信數年后有望獲得豐厚的收益。在接受彭博社(Bloomberg)的采訪時,方舟投資(ARK Invest)的創始人及首席執行官伍德表示,以當前超低價格買入,比起在峰值附近買入收益可以翻倍。2021年12月17日,伍德在推特(Twitter)上發推文稱:“創新類股票并沒有泡沫,具有深度價值。”

伍德的投資屬于反價值路線

從沃倫·巴菲特到卡爾·伊坎,價值投資者都不會認同伍德對價值的定義。通常來說,價值型股票是指投資后能夠獲得巨額收益,或者企業在扣除債務后,以低于擁有的廠房、建筑物、管道或專利價格出售的股票。現實當中,基本上找不到比ARK Innovation投資組合更集中、不顧價值、全方位投資增長型股票的平臺。在過去幾個月里,市場一直傾向低位徘徊不受關注的領域,例如能源和消費品品牌等,回避因為居家辦公而業績大放光彩的科技明星。伍德的投資組合一直表現不佳,因為她不僅與大勢相悖,而且從特斯拉(Tesla)到Coinbase再到Robinhood,她大筆持有風險最高也最時髦的熱門股票。“這是增長與價值對沖的極端案例。”佛羅里達大學(University of Florida)的經濟學家杰伊·里特爾說。“增長極快的企業曾經獲市場爭相追捧,市盈率不斷上升,彼時伍德買入相關公司可以說很幸運。多數信奉價值或熱衷增長的投資者不會走極端,因為有時候極端很可怕。只要能夠獲得各方媒體關注,派對不斷繼續,按照她的思路就可以做得非常好。”現在,長期后遺癥已經開始。曾經狂歡的人們質疑,久經考驗的規則是不是真像伍德聲稱的一樣不再適用,還是說警告的聲音其實一直正確。

事實上,當增長型股票價格大幅高估,而價值型股票便宜時,從成長股轉向價值股不可避免,這正是當前的實際情況。然而伍德仍然堅持發布震驚媒體的言論,宣稱市盈率等堅實基本面以及新加入競爭者從前輩手中攫取利潤不再重要。未來屬于不斷傳播加密貨幣、自動駕駛汽車和基因大爆發等故事的大膽創新者,故事實在酷炫到驚人,到最后要花多少錢才能夠買到手幾乎無人關注。

ARK Innovation遭遇斷崖式下跌

早些年,伍德看起來很有遠見。即使現在來看,五年前購買ARK Innovation份額的回報率也遠超過250%,至少超過納斯達克(Nasdaq)指數80個基點。但自從2021年2月初基金凈值創下152美元的歷史新高以來,一直快速下跌,結果是買入和持有份額實在太昂貴,只有收益達到無法實現水平才可以確保凈值保持當前水平,擴張空間更是別想。市場開始意識到,未來幾年利潤將遠低于預期目標。自2021年年初達到高點以來,截至1月10日中午,ARK已經跌至82.45美元,跌幅達46%。三分之一回調發生在伍德發推文稱ARK處于“深度價值”后。ARK錯過了歷史性的漲幅:2021年年初以來已經拋售33%持倉,同期的標準普爾500指數(S&P 500)上漲25%,納斯達克指數上漲了15%。

自2021年年初以來,ARK的重倉股多數出現大幅下跌。按照ARK總投資中所占份額來看,前10名重倉股中唯一上漲的是特斯拉,漲幅為34%。自2021年4月上市以來,Coinbase走勢大致持平,而Unity Software下跌了14%、Block下跌31%、Twilio下跌34%、Spotify下跌36%,還有Exact Sciences下跌45%。排名第二、第三和第四的重倉股是Roku、Teladoc和Zoom(占投資組合18%),分別下跌60%、67%和52%。人們可能會認為,大跌之后的ARK Innovation可能從極其昂貴變得十分便宜。但令人驚訝的是,以傳統判斷標準來看,目前其價格仍然高得驚人。

如果研究ARK如何堅持伍德的未來技術選股原則,就會讓人感覺相當奇妙。其實當中的很多公司利潤微薄,更常見的是巨額虧損。而且她選擇的多數公司的成立時間已經不短,賺錢的機會非常多,卻仍然做不到盈利。

我向ARK的發言人發送了簡要分析內容。該發言人拒絕發表評論。

把ARK當成大公司

為了分析方便,我把ARK Innovation當成一家投資多家企業的大型控股公司,暫且稱之為ARK Inc.。這也是投資者購買ETF份額時實際達成的一攬子交易。我根據ARK持股百分比與公司總利潤,計算出其在每只股票利潤中所占的份額。比如,ARK對Zoom的9億美元投資相當于持股比例1.7%。由于過去四季度Zoom宣布根據美國通用會計準則(GAAP)計算凈利潤為11億美元,ARK在其利潤中的份額占1870萬美元(1.7%×11億美元)。雖然ARK持有特斯拉股票的市值為13.3億美元,而特斯拉是其最大的重倉股,占投資組合的8.5%,但其持股僅占特斯拉超過1萬億美元市值的0.12%。因此,ARK在特斯拉31億美元的利潤中所占份額僅為370萬美元。請記住,特斯拉的市盈率高達350倍。與之類似,ARK持有Unity Software股份比例為1.9%,Unity Software在隨后四個季度虧損4.55億美元。因此,ARK Inc.在Unity的虧損中占的份額為負860萬美元。

我將各項收益和損失相加以確定“ARK Inc.”的總收益。總體利潤、賺錢股票的收益與ARK投資的市值之比,以及虧錢股票的巨額虧損情況,都表現出該基金并不遵守價值世界的規則。除非股價以令人震驚的速度上漲,才能夠從大幅虧損變成賺大錢,重振萎靡不振的業績。

1月4日,ARK持有43家公司的股票,市值156億美元。可以將ARK Inc.的市值視為156億美元。過去四個季度中,按照美國通用會計準則凈利潤計算方法,只有10%或不到四分之一的股票凈利潤為正。以Roku(占投資組合6.2%)、Coinbase(5.1%)、Block(3.75%)和Crispr(2.8%)等為代表的賺錢公司總利潤為1.336億美元。現在考慮一下虧損股票價格與利潤相比的情況。在156億美元的總持股中,賺錢的股票占58億美元,占37%。賺錢股票的市盈率高達43倍,遠高于近期納斯達克36倍的平均水平。請記住,最近拋售浪潮之前,ARK持股中盈利股票的市盈率還要高得多。

然而,43倍的市盈率仍然可能被低估了。令人驚訝的是,利潤最大來源是該基金持有Coinbase的5%股份。2021年4月上市,Coinbase表現出強大的盈利能力,達到近35億美元,ARK持股分到的利潤為4400萬美元。事實上,僅這家加密交易所的利潤就占10家賺錢公司總利潤的三分之一。

研究公司New Constructions的首席執行官戴維·特雷納則表示,應該看看Coinbase對勸退投資者的巨大貢獻。“他們對加密貨幣交易收費過高。”他告訴《財富》雜志。“社交媒體上人們開玩笑說,花10美元買加密貨幣,手續費卻要20美元。經紀或交易所業務從未見過如此高的利潤。”特雷納認為競爭對手很快就會以更低的價格提供類似服務,部分原因是“Coinbase并無進入壁壘。”他推測,未來Coinbase的利潤將穩定在每年12億美元左右,遠低于目前的利潤。按照他的描述,競爭激烈利潤慘淡,很長時間里將影響公司創造巨大利潤,而這點正是伍德投資的理由。順便說一句,Coinbase的凈利潤大幅下降后,ARK盈利股的市盈率從43推到驚人的55,危險越發明顯。

ARK的大問題:很多行業虧錢,主要是醫療

按照1月3日市值計算,ARK的其他三分之二投資都投向了33家虧損企業。過去四個季度按照比例計算,33家企業虧損加起來為4.28億美元。總體來看,基金持倉每年損失為2.94億美元(賺錢公司利潤為1.336億美元,虧錢公司虧損4.28億美元)。因此,ARK Inc.的市盈率為負。其份額每賣出一美元損失為2美分。很大一部分虧損因為投資機器人(UiPath)、軟件(Unity)、計算機硬件(3D系統)、移動通信(Trimble)以及教育和培訓(2U)等領域的冒險技術。根據ARK的持股比例,Robinhood對利潤拖累最大,導致虧錢公司的總虧損增加了5800萬美元。其股票也一直走低,自2021年7月上市以來已經下跌60%。

虧損主要集中在醫療行業。ARK在醫療領域投資了18家公司,股票市值50億美元,占投資組合的三分之一。按照美國通用會計準則凈利潤計算方法,被ARK視為引領醫療革命的17家公司都在虧損。大多數公司都在努力開發生物技術(例如Fate Therapeutics、Veracyte、Pacific Bioscience)或基因組(2U、10X、Crispr)方面的突破性療法。唯一盈利的公司是Crispr,在幫助ARK盈利的企業中貢獻僅次于Coinbase。Crispr是基因編輯領域的知名巨頭,過去四個季度里賺得4.03億美元,ARK持有的8.2%份額盈利也達到3300萬美元。

然而其他17家公司挖下了巨坑,單靠Crispr的巨大貢獻也無法填補。ARK在醫療投資組合中的損失份額為2億美元,約占虧損公司總損失的一半。

也許伍德希望生物技術或基因領域能夠出現一些大贏家,從而拯救ARK。里特爾指出:“這類盈利預期偏差很大,就像投資拍電影一樣。大多數失敗,最后有幾部轟動一時的電影,賺的錢還沒有投入高。”ARK可能會這樣。問題是伍德投資的大部分醫療公司成立時間并不短。自2020年年初以來,18家公司中只有5家成功上市。然而,只有Crispr在賺錢。

ARK將走向何方?

為了實現伍德預測的40%年收益,2027年年初的ARK的持股總回報要達到440%。為實現目標,投資組合公司必須從虧損轉為大幅盈利,我們認為這樣的大逆轉并不會出現,機會幾乎為零。可能性更大的是,ARK仍然非常昂貴,與交易真正發生的價值領域相悖,未來幾年表現比不上同期納斯達克和其他指數。伍德讓人們記得更清楚的,可能是改變行業規則的文化現象。特雷納說:“她是直接跟投資者談話的基金經理新榜樣,她擅長做受歡迎的事,但也給投資者造成了巨大傷害。”

伍德曾經抓住了投資史上最強勁的潮流之一。如今潮水逆轉,浪花翻涌,ARK正在逐漸沉沒。(財富中文網)

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

2021年12月中旬,凱茜·伍德旗下的旗艦基金ARK Innovation ETF的凈值暴跌,然而她越發篤定投資冒險且震撼全球的技術,堅信數年后有望獲得豐厚的收益。在接受彭博社(Bloomberg)的采訪時,方舟投資(ARK Invest)的創始人及首席執行官伍德表示,以當前超低價格買入,比起在峰值附近買入收益可以翻倍。2021年12月17日,伍德在推特(Twitter)上發推文稱:“創新類股票并沒有泡沫,具有深度價值。”

伍德的投資屬于反價值路線

從沃倫·巴菲特到卡爾·伊坎,價值投資者都不會認同伍德對價值的定義。通常來說,價值型股票是指投資后能夠獲得巨額收益,或者企業在扣除債務后,以低于擁有的廠房、建筑物、管道或專利價格出售的股票。現實當中,基本上找不到比ARK Innovation投資組合更集中、不顧價值、全方位投資增長型股票的平臺。在過去幾個月里,市場一直傾向低位徘徊不受關注的領域,例如能源和消費品品牌等,回避因為居家辦公而業績大放光彩的科技明星。伍德的投資組合一直表現不佳,因為她不僅與大勢相悖,而且從特斯拉(Tesla)到Coinbase再到Robinhood,她大筆持有風險最高也最時髦的熱門股票。“這是增長與價值對沖的極端案例。”佛羅里達大學(University of Florida)的經濟學家杰伊·里特爾說。“增長極快的企業曾經獲市場爭相追捧,市盈率不斷上升,彼時伍德買入相關公司可以說很幸運。多數信奉價值或熱衷增長的投資者不會走極端,因為有時候極端很可怕。只要能夠獲得各方媒體關注,派對不斷繼續,按照她的思路就可以做得非常好。”現在,長期后遺癥已經開始。曾經狂歡的人們質疑,久經考驗的規則是不是真像伍德聲稱的一樣不再適用,還是說警告的聲音其實一直正確。

事實上,當增長型股票價格大幅高估,而價值型股票便宜時,從成長股轉向價值股不可避免,這正是當前的實際情況。然而伍德仍然堅持發布震驚媒體的言論,宣稱市盈率等堅實基本面以及新加入競爭者從前輩手中攫取利潤不再重要。未來屬于不斷傳播加密貨幣、自動駕駛汽車和基因大爆發等故事的大膽創新者,故事實在酷炫到驚人,到最后要花多少錢才能夠買到手幾乎無人關注。

ARK Innovation遭遇斷崖式下跌

早些年,伍德看起來很有遠見。即使現在來看,五年前購買ARK Innovation份額的回報率也遠超過250%,至少超過納斯達克(Nasdaq)指數80個基點。但自從2021年2月初基金凈值創下152美元的歷史新高以來,一直快速下跌,結果是買入和持有份額實在太昂貴,只有收益達到無法實現水平才可以確保凈值保持當前水平,擴張空間更是別想。市場開始意識到,未來幾年利潤將遠低于預期目標。自2021年年初達到高點以來,截至1月10日中午,ARK已經跌至82.45美元,跌幅達46%。三分之一回調發生在伍德發推文稱ARK處于“深度價值”后。ARK錯過了歷史性的漲幅:2021年年初以來已經拋售33%持倉,同期的標準普爾500指數(S&P 500)上漲25%,納斯達克指數上漲了15%。

自2021年年初以來,ARK的重倉股多數出現大幅下跌。按照ARK總投資中所占份額來看,前10名重倉股中唯一上漲的是特斯拉,漲幅為34%。自2021年4月上市以來,Coinbase走勢大致持平,而Unity Software下跌了14%、Block下跌31%、Twilio下跌34%、Spotify下跌36%,還有Exact Sciences下跌45%。排名第二、第三和第四的重倉股是Roku、Teladoc和Zoom(占投資組合18%),分別下跌60%、67%和52%。人們可能會認為,大跌之后的ARK Innovation可能從極其昂貴變得十分便宜。但令人驚訝的是,以傳統判斷標準來看,目前其價格仍然高得驚人。

如果研究ARK如何堅持伍德的未來技術選股原則,就會讓人感覺相當奇妙。其實當中的很多公司利潤微薄,更常見的是巨額虧損。而且她選擇的多數公司的成立時間已經不短,賺錢的機會非常多,卻仍然做不到盈利。

我向ARK的發言人發送了簡要分析內容。該發言人拒絕發表評論。

把ARK當成大公司

為了分析方便,我把ARK Innovation當成一家投資多家企業的大型控股公司,暫且稱之為ARK Inc.。這也是投資者購買ETF份額時實際達成的一攬子交易。我根據ARK持股百分比與公司總利潤,計算出其在每只股票利潤中所占的份額。比如,ARK對Zoom的9億美元投資相當于持股比例1.7%。由于過去四季度Zoom宣布根據美國通用會計準則(GAAP)計算凈利潤為11億美元,ARK在其利潤中的份額占1870萬美元(1.7%×11億美元)。雖然ARK持有特斯拉股票的市值為13.3億美元,而特斯拉是其最大的重倉股,占投資組合的8.5%,但其持股僅占特斯拉超過1萬億美元市值的0.12%。因此,ARK在特斯拉31億美元的利潤中所占份額僅為370萬美元。請記住,特斯拉的市盈率高達350倍。與之類似,ARK持有Unity Software股份比例為1.9%,Unity Software在隨后四個季度虧損4.55億美元。因此,ARK Inc.在Unity的虧損中占的份額為負860萬美元。

我將各項收益和損失相加以確定“ARK Inc.”的總收益。總體利潤、賺錢股票的收益與ARK投資的市值之比,以及虧錢股票的巨額虧損情況,都表現出該基金并不遵守價值世界的規則。除非股價以令人震驚的速度上漲,才能夠從大幅虧損變成賺大錢,重振萎靡不振的業績。

1月4日,ARK持有43家公司的股票,市值156億美元。可以將ARK Inc.的市值視為156億美元。過去四個季度中,按照美國通用會計準則凈利潤計算方法,只有10%或不到四分之一的股票凈利潤為正。以Roku(占投資組合6.2%)、Coinbase(5.1%)、Block(3.75%)和Crispr(2.8%)等為代表的賺錢公司總利潤為1.336億美元。現在考慮一下虧損股票價格與利潤相比的情況。在156億美元的總持股中,賺錢的股票占58億美元,占37%。賺錢股票的市盈率高達43倍,遠高于近期納斯達克36倍的平均水平。請記住,最近拋售浪潮之前,ARK持股中盈利股票的市盈率還要高得多。

然而,43倍的市盈率仍然可能被低估了。令人驚訝的是,利潤最大來源是該基金持有Coinbase的5%股份。2021年4月上市,Coinbase表現出強大的盈利能力,達到近35億美元,ARK持股分到的利潤為4400萬美元。事實上,僅這家加密交易所的利潤就占10家賺錢公司總利潤的三分之一。

研究公司New Constructions的首席執行官戴維·特雷納則表示,應該看看Coinbase對勸退投資者的巨大貢獻。“他們對加密貨幣交易收費過高。”他告訴《財富》雜志。“社交媒體上人們開玩笑說,花10美元買加密貨幣,手續費卻要20美元。經紀或交易所業務從未見過如此高的利潤。”特雷納認為競爭對手很快就會以更低的價格提供類似服務,部分原因是“Coinbase并無進入壁壘。”他推測,未來Coinbase的利潤將穩定在每年12億美元左右,遠低于目前的利潤。按照他的描述,競爭激烈利潤慘淡,很長時間里將影響公司創造巨大利潤,而這點正是伍德投資的理由。順便說一句,Coinbase的凈利潤大幅下降后,ARK盈利股的市盈率從43推到驚人的55,危險越發明顯。

ARK的大問題:很多行業虧錢,主要是醫療

按照1月3日市值計算,ARK的其他三分之二投資都投向了33家虧損企業。過去四個季度按照比例計算,33家企業虧損加起來為4.28億美元。總體來看,基金持倉每年損失為2.94億美元(賺錢公司利潤為1.336億美元,虧錢公司虧損4.28億美元)。因此,ARK Inc.的市盈率為負。其份額每賣出一美元損失為2美分。很大一部分虧損因為投資機器人(UiPath)、軟件(Unity)、計算機硬件(3D系統)、移動通信(Trimble)以及教育和培訓(2U)等領域的冒險技術。根據ARK的持股比例,Robinhood對利潤拖累最大,導致虧錢公司的總虧損增加了5800萬美元。其股票也一直走低,自2021年7月上市以來已經下跌60%。

虧損主要集中在醫療行業。ARK在醫療領域投資了18家公司,股票市值50億美元,占投資組合的三分之一。按照美國通用會計準則凈利潤計算方法,被ARK視為引領醫療革命的17家公司都在虧損。大多數公司都在努力開發生物技術(例如Fate Therapeutics、Veracyte、Pacific Bioscience)或基因組(2U、10X、Crispr)方面的突破性療法。唯一盈利的公司是Crispr,在幫助ARK盈利的企業中貢獻僅次于Coinbase。Crispr是基因編輯領域的知名巨頭,過去四個季度里賺得4.03億美元,ARK持有的8.2%份額盈利也達到3300萬美元。

然而其他17家公司挖下了巨坑,單靠Crispr的巨大貢獻也無法填補。ARK在醫療投資組合中的損失份額為2億美元,約占虧損公司總損失的一半。

也許伍德希望生物技術或基因領域能夠出現一些大贏家,從而拯救ARK。里特爾指出:“這類盈利預期偏差很大,就像投資拍電影一樣。大多數失敗,最后有幾部轟動一時的電影,賺的錢還沒有投入高。”ARK可能會這樣。問題是伍德投資的大部分醫療公司成立時間并不短。自2020年年初以來,18家公司中只有5家成功上市。然而,只有Crispr在賺錢。

ARK將走向何方?

為了實現伍德預測的40%年收益,2027年年初的ARK的持股總回報要達到440%。為實現目標,投資組合公司必須從虧損轉為大幅盈利,我們認為這樣的大逆轉并不會出現,機會幾乎為零。可能性更大的是,ARK仍然非常昂貴,與交易真正發生的價值領域相悖,未來幾年表現比不上同期納斯達克和其他指數。伍德讓人們記得更清楚的,可能是改變行業規則的文化現象。特雷納說:“她是直接跟投資者談話的基金經理新榜樣,她擅長做受歡迎的事,但也給投資者造成了巨大傷害。”

伍德曾經抓住了投資史上最強勁的潮流之一。如今潮水逆轉,浪花翻涌,ARK正在逐漸沉沒。(財富中文網)

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

In mid-December, as her ARK Innovation ETF's shares (ARKK) were plummeting, Cathie Wood doubled down on her claim that betting on adventurous, world-shaking technologies would prove a bonanza in the years ahead. In an interview with Bloomberg, the ARK Invest founder and CEO Investors entering at such supercheap prices would make double the sumptuous returns of folks who bought near the peak. As Wood tweeted on Dec. 17: "Innovation stocks are not in a bubble. They are in deep value territory."

Nothing could be more anti-value than the Wood portfolio

Value investors from Warren Buffett to Carl Icahn wouldn't recognize Wood's definition of the V-word. Value stocks are generally defined as those that produce lots of earnings for the dollars you're investing, or sell below what an enterprise owns in plants, buildings, pipelines, or patents, after subtracting debt. In reality, you couldn't invent a more concentrated, anti-value, all-in-for-growth platform than the portfolio at ARK Innovation. In the past few months, the market's been moving strongly to beaten-down, unloved shares in such areas as energy and consumer brands, and shunning the shooting stars of tech that sparkled in the stay-at-home economy. Wood's been suffering because she's not only on the wrong side of the trend but also dangerously leveraged to the riskiest and most glamorous of the go-go stocks, from Tesla to Coinbase to Robinhood. "This is extreme loading of growth versus value," says Jay Ritter, the University of Florida economist who's the nation's leading expert on IPOs. "Wood got lucky putting the fund's eggs in companies with extremely high growth when the market was bidding up their multiples. Most value or growth investors don't go to those extremes, because some of those extremes are scary. Her approach can do incredibly well as long as you're getting all the media attention and the party keeps going." Now the long hangover has begun. The onetime revelers are questioning if the time-tested rules no longer apply, as Wood claimed, or if the warning voices were right all along.

Indeed, a rotation from growth to value is inevitable when the former is wildly overpriced and its rival a bargain, and that's what we're seeing today. But Wood is sticking to the manifesto that wowed the media: The stalwart fundamentals such as price/earnings multiples and how new competitors grab profits from the first movers no longer count. The future belongs to the daring innovators propagating narratives such as a looming explosion in cryptocurrencies, autonomous vehicles, and genomics so stupendous that it almost doesn't matter what you pay for the pioneers.

ARK Innovation has suffered a shocking decline

In the early years, Wood looked like a visionary. And even today, folks who bought shares in ARK Innovation five years ago have pocketed returns of well over 250%, waxing the Nasdaq by at least 80 basis points. But since ARK hit an all-time peak of $152 in early February, it has suffered a fast slide, the result of buying and holding shares so pricey that only unachievable earnings growth could keep them at current levels—let alone leave room to expand. The market started recognizing that profits will fall far short of the fantasy targets in the years ahead. Since the summit early last year, ARK has fallen to $82.45 as of midday on Jan. 10, a drop of 46%. One-third of that pullback has occurred since Wood's tweet putting ARK in the "deep value" zone. ARK missed a historic bash: Since the start of 2021, it has surrendered 33% versus a rise of 25% for the S&P 500 and 15% for the Nasdaq.

Most of ARK's largest holdings have endured steep declines since the start of 2021. Of its top 10 stocks, measured by their share of ARK's total investments, the only winner is Tesla, which gained 34%. Coinbase is more or less flat since going public in April, while Unity Software shed 14%, Block 31%, Twilio 34%, Spotify 36%, and Exact Sciences 45%. Its numbers two, three, and four bets Roku, Teladoc, and Zoom—encompassing 18% of the portfolio—tumbled 60%, 67%, and 52% respectively. You'd think a retreat this sweeping might have taken ARK Innovation from extremely pricey to a good buy. But amazingly, by any conventional measure, it's still shockingly overpriced.

It's fascinating to examine how ardently ARK is sticking to Wood's tech-of-the-future picks, even though so many generate puny profits or, more often, big losses. And most of her choices have been around for a long time, enjoying an ample runway to make money, but continuing to fall short.

I presented a summary of my analysis to a spokesperson for ARK; the spokesperson declined to comment on the story.

Looking at ARK as one big company

For this analysis, I'll look at ARK Innovation as if it were one big holding company—call it ARK Inc.—with investments in a number of enterprises. That's the package investors get when they buy the ETF's shares. I calculated the fund's portion in the profits for each of its holdings by applying ARK's percentage of ownership to that company's total earnings. For example, ARK's $900 million investment in Zoom equates to a 1.7% stake. Since Zoom posted GAAP net profits in the past four quarters of $1.1 billion, ARK's share of those profits is $18.7 billion (1.7% x $1.1 billion). Although ARK holds $1.33 billion in Tesla stock and the EV maker is its biggest investment at 8.5% of the portfolio, its ownership position represents just 0.12% of Tesla's over $1 trillion cap. So ARK's share of Tesla's $3.1 billion in trailing profits tallies to just $3.7 million—keep in mind that Tesla sports a gigantic P/E of 350. Likewise, ARK holds 1.9% of Unity Software, which lost $455 million over the trailing four quarters. Hence, our ARK Inc.'s portion of Unity's deficit is a negative $8.6 million.

I added all the gains and losses to establish total earnings for "ARK Inc." The overall profits, what the winners are making versus the market value of ARK's investment in them, and the huge negative numbers for the underwater players and where they occur, point to a fund that's a world removed from a value play, and that must rise at an incredible pace to go from deeply unprofitable to making the big money needed to revive its flagging performance.

On Jan. 4, ARK harbored stocks in 43 companies carrying a market value of $15.6 billion. We could consider that $15.6 billion as ARK Inc.'s market cap. Over the past four quarters, only 10 or fewer than one-quarter of its holdings registered positive GAAP net earnings. That profitmaking group—led by such winners as Roku (6.2% of the portfolio), Coinbase (5.1%), Block (3.75%), and Crispr (2.8%)—posted overall profits of $133.6 million. Now let's consider what the in-the-black contingent sell for compared with their profits. Of the total holdings of $15.6 billion, the plus members account for $5.8 billion, or 37%. The price/earnings multiple for those positive contributors is a lofty 43, well above the recent Nasdaq average of 36. Keep in mind that before the recent selloff, the P/E of ARK's profit winners was far higher.

That multiple of 43, however, is probably understated. Amazingly, the biggest earnings kick comes from the fund's 5% ownership in Coinbase. Since its debut in April, Coinbase has proved richly profitable, garnering almost $3.5 billion and putting ARK's portion at $44 million. In fact, the crypto exchange alone accounts for one-third of the 10 money-spinners' total earnings.

Look for Coinbase's huge contribution to shrink, says David Trainer, CEO of research firm New Constructs. "They're charging exorbitant fees for trading cryptocurrencies," he told Fortune. "People joke on social media that they spent $10 on crypto and paid $20 in fees. Nobody in brokerage or exchange business has margins anywhere close." Trainer contends that competitors will soon be offering similar service at much lower prices, in part because "Coinbase isn't protected by barriers to entry." He posits that Coinbase's future profits will settle at around $1.2 billion a year, well below its current run rate. He's describing just the kind of competitive, profit-crushing dynamic that prevents companies from minting huge margins for long periods, just what Wood's approach depends on. By the way, a drop that sharp in Coinbase's net would push the P/E for ARK's profitable members from 43 to a formidable 55, and further into the danger zone.

ARK’s big problem: a crowd of money losers, mostly medical

The other two-thirds of ARK's investments, measured by their market value on Jan. 3, sits in those 33 lossmakers. Their combined, prorated deficit over the past four quarters is $428 million. So overall, the fund's holdings are generating annual losses of $294 million ($133.6 in profits for the positives minus $428 million in losses for the negatives). Hence, ARK doesn't have a P/E multiple at all. It's generating 2 cents in losses for every one dollar its shares are selling for. A good chunk of those shortfalls flow from adventurous tech bets in such areas as robotics (UiPath), software (Unity), computer hardware (3D Systems), mobile communications (Trimble), and education and training (2U). Based on ARK's ownership percentage, Robinhood is the biggest profit drag, adding $58 million to the losers' overall deficit. Its stock has also been a drag, shedding 60% since its IPO in July.

The class deepest in the red: health care. ARK owns 18 companies valued at $5 billion in the sector, accounting for a third of its portfolio. Seventeen of these players, prized by ARK as spear carriers in a medical revolution, are losing money, measured by GAAP net earnings. Most of the group are striving to develop groundbreaking therapies in biotechnology (Fate Therapeutics, Veracyte, Pacific Bioscience) or genomics (2U, 10X, Crispr). The only profitable holding is Crispr, and it's second only to Coinbase in boosting ARK's plus column. The established titan in gene editing earned $403 million in the past four quarters, bringing ARK's 8.2% share to $33 million.

But the other 17 have dug a hole that Crispr's big contribution couldn't come close to filling. ARK's share of the combined losses in its medical portfolio was $200 million, amounting to around half of the negative group's total hit.

Maybe Wood expects that a few explosive winners in biotech or genomics will bail out ARK. "You expect big skews in returns from these types of companies," notes Ritter. "It's like movies. The vast majority are failures, but you get a couple of blockbusters that can more than pay for the bombs." It could happen at ARK. The rub is that most of Wood's health care investments have been around for a long time. Only five of the 18 had IPOs since the start of 2020. And still, only Crispr is making money.

Where is ARK going from here?

To achieve the 40% annual gains Wood predicts, ARK's stocks would need to produce a total return of 440% by early 2027. To get there, its portfolio companies must grow profits from underground to such gigantic levels that we can assume it won't happen, or even come close to happening. More likely, ARK's still so expensive, still so much the antithesis of the value sphere where the real deals reside, that it will underperform the Nasdaq and other indexes in the years ahead. Wood will probably be better remembered as a cultural phenomenon than a rebel who changed the game. "She's the new model for portfolio managers who talk directly to the people," says Trainer. "She's good at doing things that are popular. But she's also doing a huge disservice to investors."

Wood has caught one of the most powerful currents in investment history. Now the tide's reversing, the white caps are rising, and ARK's heading for a shipwreck.

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